TV-SHIFT 2035 · JAPAN'S FIVE KEY COMMERCIAL BROADCASTERS
Japan's Commercial TV Business Shift 2015→2035
As terrestrial TV advertising stalls, how have Japan's five key commercial broadcasters changed what their revenue is made of? Each group's revenue is drawn as three circles — Broadcasting, Content & IP and Non-broadcast — with disclosed results for FY3/15–FY3/26 alongside a trend extension to FY3/35 that assumes past growth continues (not a forecast). Use it to see how far each broadcaster has built ways of earning beyond broadcasting, and how they differ.
Extension scenario (how fast terrestrial advertising declines and how much of it streaming advertising wins back, based on overseas cases):
Only two things change between scenarios: terrestrial revenue within Broadcasting, and the overlap (broadcasters' streaming advertising). BS, radio, Content & IP, Non-broadcast and all results for FY3/15–FY3/26 are the same in every scenario (as is the assumption that Fuji recovers within three years). Revenue won back through streaming falls inside Content & IP (the overlap), so it does not add to the total. The difference in totals between scenarios equals the difference in terrestrial revenue.
Broadcasting (terrestrial + BS + radio)Overlap = digital revenue (part of Content & IP)Content & IPNon-broadcast (distance = profit support)Extension years (dashed, light fill) / dashed rings outside a circle = range if growth were at the 25th–75th percentile
Year-by-year change, decomposed
Each year's change from the previous year is split into Broadcasting, Content & IP and Non-broadcast and stacked. Units are points (pt) of FY3/15 consolidated revenue, on a vertical axis shared by all five broadcasters. The top row shows results (FY3/15→FY3/26, pt of FY3/15 consolidated revenue); the bottom row shows the extension (FY3/26→FY3/35, pt of FY3/26 consolidated revenue, for the selected scenario at median growth — not a forecast). In both rows the bar on the far right is the cumulative total for the period, and each row shares one vertical axis across the five broadcasters. In years when business segments were reorganized, the comparison is with the previous year restated on the new basis.
BroadcastingContent & IPNon-broadcastContent & IP + Non-broadcast (cumulative total that cannot be split because of a segment change; striped in both colors)◆ Segment reorganization year＊ One-off factor in Non-broadcast (acquisition, COVID-19, property sales; hover for the source)
Extension FY3/26→FY3/35 (base: FY3/26 consolidated revenue; not a forecast)
Cross-section:
Data table: (¥bn)
Content & IP is a residual (total external segment revenue − Broadcasting − Non-broadcast). The document and page for every value are in the source table on the “Method & sources” tab.
Notes
① How to read the charts
Circle size: circle area is proportional to revenue, on the same scale for all five broadcasters and all years. Figures inside the circles are in ¥ billion.
The overlap of two circles: the overlap between the Broadcasting and Content & IP circles is digital revenue. The distance between the circles is set so that the overlap area equals digital revenue. The whole Broadcasting circle is “Broadcasting + overlap”; the whole Content & IP circle is the size of Content & IP.
Position of the Non-broadcast circle: it sits closer the more it supports Broadcasting and Content & IP in terms of profit. The measure is “profit of businesses other than broadcasting and programming ÷ profit of all businesses”; the higher the share, the closer the circle. In years when the broadcasting and programming side made a loss the circle touches the others; in years when Non-broadcast made a loss it sits at the farthest position. Both cases are flagged. The maximum distance is a value chosen for legibility and carries no meaning in the data.
Headline figures and the change decomposition: change measured with FY3/15 consolidated revenue set to 100 (pt). Adding Broadcasting, Content & IP and Non-broadcast gives the percentage change in consolidated revenue. The lower row of the decomposition (the extension) uses FY3/26 consolidated revenue as 100.
Extension years (FY3/27–FY3/35): circles are drawn dashed with a light fill. The dashed rings outside a circle show its size if extended at the 25th and 75th percentile growth rates.
Scenarios: only terrestrial revenue and the overlap change. Revenue won back through streaming goes into the overlap (inside Content & IP), so it does not add to the total. The difference in totals between scenarios is the difference in terrestrial revenue.
Marks: ◆ = year a company reorganized its business segments (compared with the previous year restated on the new basis). In those years the previous year is also shown on the new segment basis (CX FY3/18, TBS FY3/19, EX FY3/22, TX FY3/23; the figures as originally disclosed are in the data table and source table). ＊ = one-off factor in Non-broadcast (acquisition, COVID-19, property sales). ◇ = target year of a company plan. Striped overlap = a year when the definition of digital revenue differs from today's.
② Terms
Broadcasters: NTV = Nippon Television Holdings, EX = TV Asahi Holdings, TBS = TBS Holdings, TX = TV Tokyo Holdings, CX = Fuji Media Holdings. Their flagship channels are the key stations of Japan's five commercial TV networks.
FY3/26: the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026 (April 2025–March 2026). All five companies close their books in March.
¥bn: billions of yen. Figures are converted from the millions of yen used in the disclosures.
Broadcasting: terrestrial + BS + radio.
Content & IP: revenue generated from programs and IP — streaming, anime, program sales, film, events, music, TV shopping, CS pay-TV and so on.
Non-broadcast: businesses unrelated to programming, such as real estate, hotels and tourism, fitness clubs and catalog shopping. The three circles are categories defined by this dashboard according to the nature of the revenue, independent of each company's own segments.
Terrestrial: the key station's time and spot advertising revenue.
BS / radio: revenue of the BS satellite broadcasting and radio subsidiaries. Only TBS (TBS Radio) and CX (Nippon Broadcasting System) own radio.
CS: pay-TV via communications satellite. It is counted in Content & IP.
Shopping: TV shopping uses airtime, so it is in Content & IP; catalog and e-commerce shopping is Non-broadcast.
Digital revenue: revenue such as the broadcaster's own streaming advertising and paid streaming. What it includes differs by broadcaster (see the table in ③).
Extension: the value if past growth continues. It is not a forecast, and neither is its total a forecast of consolidated revenue.
Median: the middle value when the year-on-year growth rates for FY3/16–FY3/25 are sorted. The extension uses this growth rate.
Range (25th–75th percentile): the range covering the middle half of the sorted year-on-year growth rates. Compounded over nine years, the range opens up widely.
Terrestrial extension: a forecast of the terrestrial advertising market, allocated by each broadcaster's share. Fuji is assumed to regain a 19.3% share within three years.
Recapture rate: the share of advertising lost on terrestrial that the broadcaster wins back through its own streaming advertising.
Basis of the scenarios: Status quo (Japan baseline) = −1.0% a year, 65% (Dentsu, Advertising Expenditures in Japan, 2019→2025). Accelerated shift (France model) = −2.5% a year, 64% (estimate from French advertising statistics). Successful streaming shift (UK model) = −4.4% a year, 83% (Ofcom, the UK communications regulator; includes revenue earned on YouTube). Failed streaming shift (Germany model) = −4.7% a year, 19% (German advertising association ZAW and one major broadcaster). National statistics use different units, so the comparison is between rates.
Restatement: when a company changes its business segments and also presents earlier years on the new basis (the new-basis figures are sometimes shown alongside in the prior year's documents). Such years cannot be compared directly with the previous year, so they are excluded from the growth-rate calculation.
Revenue recognition standard: the accounting rule that sets how revenue is recorded. Japan's new standard applied from FY3/22.
Company plans: each company's published forecast for the next year, medium-term management plan or long-term vision. They are not used to build the extension; they are only compared with it on the “Method & sources” tab.
③ Data caveats
Broadcaster
What digital revenue includes
CS disclosure
Radio
Effect of the accounting change (FY3/22)
NTV
Streaming advertising + Hulu (from FY3/20)
FY3/15–FY3/21. From FY3/22 the scope changes due to a business transfer
CS alone disclosed only for FY3/17, FY3/18 and FY3/23
TBS Radio
Minor
TX
Streaming business (from FY3/22)
Missing only for FY3/15
None
About ¥20.5bn (of which terrestrial −¥11.9bn)
CX
Streaming advertising + digital business (from FY3/22; FY3/17, FY3/19 and FY3/21 use a different definition)
CS alone not disclosed
Nippon Broadcasting System
About ¥23.8bn
Because digital revenue includes different things at each broadcaster, comparisons between broadcasters are indicative only. The disclosures do not show whether advertising income from outside video platforms such as YouTube is included.
CS accounts for about 2–4% of revenue, so missing values in some years do not change the overall trend.
BS and radio may include intra-group transactions and are therefore approximations.
Nippon TV's terrestrial revenue uses external customer revenue by product and service from the Annual Securities Report.
CX's radio decline in FY3/16 (¥18.7bn→¥14.5bn) and increase in FY3/24 (¥13.8bn→¥16.4bn) reflect changes in the business itself, not a change of scope (Annual Securities Report FY3/16 p.14, FY3/24 p.20).
The accounting change reduced reported revenue, but the figures have not been adjusted. Its effect is disclosed only by business segment, so it is not known how much fell on Broadcasting versus Content & IP.
The profit used to position the Non-broadcast circle is disclosed by segment. For CX the segment's scope does not match Non-broadcast. Years positioned by a loss are CX FY3/25 and FY3/26 (broadcasting and programming side in loss) and NTV FY3/21 (Non-broadcast in loss).
The classification of shopping businesses is this dashboard's judgment based on each company's business descriptions. At EX and TX shopping is mainly TV shopping, so Non-broadcast is zero.
Years excluded from the extension and other broadcaster-specific treatments are listed under “How extensions are built” on the “Method & sources” tab.
Broadcaster:Source table year:Extension compared with company plans:
Selections on this tab are independent of the “Three circles & changes” tab.
How extensions are built (differences by broadcaster)
All five extensions follow the same rules, but some broadcasters are treated differently because of their data. Keep these differences in mind when comparing extensions. Rates are the median of year-on-year growth for FY3/16–FY3/25 (in brackets: 25th–75th percentile and number of years). The selected broadcaster's row is highlighted.
Company plans vs. extension:
Revenue targets from each company's published next-year forecast, medium-term management plan and long-term vision, shown next to the extension for the same year (selected scenario, median). Values whose scope does not match a circle are marked “approx.”. Company plans are not used to build the extension. Other metrics such as profit and ROE are listed for reference only.
Source table:
For every value of the selected broadcaster and year, the calculation and the document and page. Values that were not used are listed with the reason. Hover over a row to see its reference number for cross-checking.
Sources: each company's Annual Securities Report (有価証券報告書, Yuho), Earnings Release (決算短信, Tanshin) and earnings presentation materials (決算説明資料); document names and pages are in the source table on the “Method & sources” tab. Unit: ¥ billion. Translated from the Japanese edition; where they differ, the Japanese edition prevails.